On February 24, 2022, Russia reignited its ongoing conflict with Ukraine, a war that began back in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea. The war is playing a critical role on the world stage, showing escalating tensions between Russia and NATO and emphasizing the fragility of global supply lines. But perhaps even more importantly, the war will forever affect the present and future of humanity's fight against climate change: for the better, and the worse.
War and its Effects on the Environment
More clearly than any prior conflict, the fighting in Ukraine is displaying the new realities of warfare. Densely-populated urban areas, centers of human infrastructure, are the focal points for fighting. Drones have seen greater prevalence than in any other war before, costing a few thousand dollars to destroy millions in military hardware. Missiles, rockets, and bombs have utterly devastated cities and caused thousands of civilian casualties.
But the constant stream of fuel needed to power tanks, fires caused by bombs, and concrete buildings collapsing over destroyed roads are creating a much more long-term problem. The first two years of the war have produced 175 million tonnes of CO2 in greenhouse gas emissions- more than the Netherlands’ annual emissions. The emissions come from many different avenues. First is the fuel cost of operating a war. In total 51.6 million tonnes of CO2, about a third from Ukraine and the rest from Russia, are a result of fuel usage throughout the war. Additionally, infrastructure destruction contributes to this number. Another third of emissions will come from rebuilding what was destroyed. The widespread urban warfare has decimated cities and towns all across Ukraine, and the projected effort to rebuild will generate another 54.7 million tonnes of CO2.
The remaining emissions come from a variety of sources. One such is the destruction of its clean energy infrastructure: nuclear, solar, and wind. Since the start of the war, 90% of Ukraine’s wind capacity and 50% of its solar capacity have been taken offline. Furthermore, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya reactor, the largest nuclear reactor in Europe, has faced Russian attacks and been forced to shut down amidst safety concerns. Not only does this raise environmental concerns over nuclear waste leakage, but it also forces Ukraine to use more temporary nonrenewable energy sources such as coal, which further pollute the environment.
Another major concern is fires. Since the start of the war, the occurrence of fires has gone up 25 times. 27,000 war-related fires have occurred since the start of the war, emitting an additional 23 million tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere. All this will only increase as the war carries on. With little end in sight and thousands of bombs, drones, and lives thrown at the other side, the war will have a long-lasting impact not only on the political landscape of the entire world but on its climate as well.
The Wars Positive and Negative Effects on the Global Energy Market
Since the start of the war, European nations have imposed numerous sanctions on Russia, primarily on Russian gas. The share of Russian pipeline gas imports to Europe fell from 41% in 2021 to 8% in 2023. This has created a situation in which European nations had to look to alternative energy sources, such as renewables. The war caused European countries to increase their targets for renewable energy production from 40% of power to 45% in 2030. Combined with rising oil prices, a real incentive has been created for investment in the clean energy sector.
The war has also shown European nations the dangers of overreliance on foreign powers. Domestic renewable energy can be an adequate way to achieve self-sustenance in energy. Furthermore, it decreases geopolitical tensions that may arise over oil and gas, separating them from the complicated conflicts of the Middle East. The future of European renewable energy is certainly looking bright. It can serve as a model to the rest of the world of the benefits of going green.
Unfortunately, the war created some unexpected negative developments. Coal demand reached an all-time high in 2022 due to high gas prices. Investment reached 6x levels aligned with 2030 climate targets. Instead of Europe, Russian gas is now going to India, where in 2023 accounted for 20% of all crude imports, significantly higher than 2021’s figure of 2%. As these developing markets further increase their dependency on cheap Russian gas, the incentive to invest in renewable sources will become less appealing, and make the global fight against global warming harder.
Key Takeaways
Modern warfare has been shown to have devastating long and short-term impacts on climate. The widespread usage of bombs, destruction of urban infrastructure, and consumption of gas to fuel the war machine destroy ecosystems and pollute on an unfathomable level. These ecological disasters play into each other, with droughts and natural disasters pushing unrest in underdeveloped countries, as was seen in the war in Darfur and the Syrian civil war. Measures must be taken not only to ensure stability amidst changing weather patterns and dying environments ( but also to limit the devastating arms used that only serve to further these conflicts - this statement is unclear).
Developed nations have a responsibility to act as a model and aid the rest of the developing world, not only to prevent the deaths these conflicts cause but also to protect their citizens from the impact of climate change. Reducing dependence on autocratic petrol states and warmongers like Russia whilst creating self-sufficient clean energy systems is necessary for national security and creating a green future, as European countries are recognizing amidst the war. While it remains a tragic conflict, the lessons countries can take away from the Ukraine war have paved the road for the will to legislate wide-scale development of clean energy systems, initially in the EU and hopefully worldwide.
Comments